Water Resource Associates
A network of consultants in water resources, water quality, hydrology, hydrogeology and flooding.
Potential Impact of Climate Change on Water Quality.
The impacts of climate change on water quality has been assessed using the INCA suite of Models to simulate flow, phosphorus, nitrogen, ammonia, sediments, macrophytes and epiphytes in 6 UK rivers for all the UKCIP scenarios.
Background
Versions of INCA for phosphorus, sediment and nitrogen has been used to asses the potential impacts of climate change on flow and water quality in the Rivers, Lambourn, Kennet, Tamar, Tame, Tweed and Lugg (Wye). The UKCIP02 scenarios have been used to drive the models and the outputs have been analyzed for the 2010s, 2020s and the 2050s. Results show relatively small changes in water quality except where there are significant discharges which are affected by decreased dilution. However, the models have been run using the long term HadCM3 model for the period to 2100 and here significant changes occur due to the ramping up on climate change into the future.
The figure shows changes in mean monthly orthophosphate by the 2050s for the UKCIP02 scenarios for the River Lambourn. The second shows changes in Macrophyte and Epiphyte dynamics over the period 1061-2100 driven by the Hadley Centre GCM A2 Scenario.
Changes in mean monthly orthophosphate
Changes in Macrophyte and Epiphyte dynamics
Scope of work by Water Resource Associates Ltd
Applications of the INCA Model to assess potential impacts of climate change on water quality in 6 UK rivers .
Results
Report to EA on Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality. Contact Paul Whitehead for further information.