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Flood Forecasting

Flood forecasting relies on the fact that a computer can calculate the response of a river basin to extreme rainfall or snow melt - using an appropriate model - in a shorter time than the response takes in real life. Rainfall, other climatological data and river levels must be transmitted to the computer system in "real-time". Forecasts can be updated and the time horizon extended continually as new information becomes available.
 
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The hydrograph shows a sample forecast for the Niger at Niamey, a rather unusual case where the response time of the river is extremely slow - around three months.

Flow forecasting programs should be sufficiently robust to continue functioning when a failure in the transmitting network reduces the amount of data received. They should also adapt to variation in the values of the model parameters as indicated by continual self-checking of forecast performance.

The expertise of Water Resources Associates covers both the design of the computer programs and the specification of the hardware for measuring and transmitting data.

 


Experience as a company

Southern Region, Environment Agency
The Southern Region of the Agency wished to improve the accuracy and lead time of forecasts with the use of PC based models linked to their real-time telemetry system. Reliable software, delivered on time and to budget was required handle the interaction with the user, telemetry data files, execution of an arbitrary number of hydrological models and presentation of results. Time and budget were both critical for this project and WRA provided the required software within the imposed constraints.

Bangladesh
Design and implementation of a networked PC Unix-based system for forecasting operations at the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre in Dhaka. A microTIDEDA hydrological database and MIKE 11 hydraulic model were configured to enable the seasonal forecasting of floods on the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. A training programme was provided for counterpart staff.

 

 

In addition the Principals have also worked in:

Niger
A flow forecasting system for the Niger river basin - contributing basin 1.2 million km2 - was funded by WMO. The network comprised 65 stations measuring river level and rainfall, linked by satellite to an international forecasting centre in Niamey and to national forecasting centres in each of the eight participating countries. Each of the stations also transmitted diagnostic data to facilitate preventative maintenance. The network was able to forecast flows up to 3 months in advance, making it a valuable tool for water management and agricultural production.

Indonesia
A pilot forecasting system was established in the Cimanuk basin in Java to improve the country’s capability in flood forecasting. The system comprised 30 stations; all measured rainfall and nine of them measured flow. Three of the stations also measured turbidity on an experimental basis. The data were transmitted by UHF radio links. As the two receiving stations were outside of the basin two repeater stations were needed. The system was designed to provide forecasts to towns and to the operators of major hydraulic structures diverting water for rice irrigation.

UK
The river Dee in north Wales was a test bed in the 1970s and 1980s for telemetry systems and forecasting models. It provided the first UK demonstration of real-time linkage between radar-measured rainfall linked to a rainfall-runoff model. Three of our principals had key roles throughout the project, which was carried out by IH and the Welsh National Water Development Authority.